Mile Post 370

Mile Post 370
Mile Post 370

Saturday, February 20, 2016

The Death of the Republican Establishment (or How Trump becomes ourNextPresident)

When Barack Obama set about to divide and conquer the country, he started by using race as a wedge. Then, emphasizing differences and pitting groups against each other, he set up what may be permanent fractures along the cultural lines on which it was founded.  I believe that this was intentional and he has prepared for it by arming various Government agencies to the teeth. 

Concurrently, the Country Club/Establishment Republicans (GOPe, RNC, Republi-crats or whatever you might want to call them), by running on a platform to stop Obama and then reneging and governing against the will of their constituents (with their lack of response), were setting forces in motion that are far greater than they could control.  

Together, by governing against the will of the majority of people, emphasizing our differences, and pitting us against each other, they have created conditions where the disaffected coalesced behind what the establishment of both parties consider to be a "vulgar monster" that truly scares them.  With this "monster" ignoring the rules and decorum they've so carefully crafted to throttle debate and keep themselves in power, by their own actions, they have created an opening for a TV Savvy businessman with no past political experience.  So, in walks Donald Trump, playing the creature from the backwoods of America. 

I think that, besides being a MARKETING GENIUS and UNDERSTANDING HOW TO HOLD THE ATTENTION OF AN AUDIENCE, Donald Trump is VERY  POLITICALLY SAVVY.  He sees the gap that he can run to get to the finish line to win the Presidency.  While he is no Conservative, he's picked up and extended Ronald Reagan's old messages of "Are you better off today than you were 4 years ago" and "It's Morning Again in America," by claiming that he will "Make America Great Again."  In doing this, he is running as a Republican, although he espouses few Republican principles and is FAR more comfortable as. Democrat.  And he's leading the pack after the Super Tuesday Primary Elections, much to the chagrin and exploding heads at the Republican National Committee.

I figure that much of the support that Trump is getting is from the disaffected Democrats, the former blue-collar, Reagan Democrats, who are now persona non grata within the Democrat Party.  They are fueling the Trump movement and will give him enough status to muck up the works of both Conservatives and the Country Club/Establishment Republicans.  And since the Country Club/Establishment Republican's can't find a candidate that can win over the hearts of the Republican Party voters, their only hope and chance is to steal it through a brokered convention, where the power brokers (MitchMcConnell and Reince Priebus) get to choose the winner. 

In The American Conservative,  Donald Devine (a campaign strategist and Director of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management, during President Reagan's first term) wrote an article asking "Will the GOP Allow a Convention Fight?"  Based on the article, I'd say that the Republican nomination has already been rigged toward an establishment candidate from way back in 2012.  That explains why Reince Priebus relented and allowed Carly Fiorina on the big debate stage for the second debate, giving her supporters time to vent before she burned out.  

I'm expecting a brokered convention, where the sensibility of our Country Club/Establishment "betters" will elect their chosen nominee (currently John Kasich, but maybe Rubio or even Jeb!), driving Trump to be outsider and spoiler.  (Mitch McConnell and Priebus have set up rules where the delegates awarded to candidates from the early, primaries - before March 15 - are proportionally divided, rather than a winner take all system.  Then they hope for a close race between two candidates, instead of a runaway.  If the delegates are close, but neither has enough delegates to win the nomination, McConnell and Priebus can throw out votes for a particular candidate, from a particular race for various "technicalities and rules violations," and pick the candidate they want as the Republican nominee.).

Conservative's understand that Trump will never be a conservative in any sense of the word. He's a New York, Rockerfeller ("Rocky, Don't Steal My Sign!)" Republican at best and an ally of big business.  So they are hoping for Cruz to win the primaries and be nominated.  In this tale of pathos, Mitch McConnell is playing "the deeply offended Southern Gentleman ('Why sir, you've insulted my honor!'), whose honor and integrity has been called out by the young interloper, Cruz, who called him "A Liar" on the Senate floor and into the recorded minutes of the Senate.  McConnell now feels that he must defend his honor and position at all costs to prove his masculinity and retain the position of Majority Leader in the Senate, even if it means the destruction of every thing around him.  Meanwhile, former Speaker Boehner has his own axe to grind with Cruz for standing with Conservative Representatives  in the House, who forced Former Speaker John Boehner to vacate the chair of the Speaker of the House.

IF the Republican nomination process plays out with Cruz winning, McConnell is just waiting to bitch-slap Cruz and all of the Conservative Insurrection down for calling him a liar.  Reince Priebus (along with most of the rest of the establishment) would love to be done with the social conservatives they consider to be a poor representation of the party.  I'm of the opinion that they want to squash Conservative Idealism once and for all time.  If this happens, I expect a full implosion and marginalization of the Republican Party, as its disaffected Conservative members leave in droves and the Reagan Democrats that have been driven out of their party find the Country Club/Establishment inhospitable as well.

So if Trump wins the primary contest, the question is "who will Trump choose as a running mate?"  Of course if Trump (or Cruz) were to run as the outsider and pick the other as VEEP,  it could seriously backfire on the Country Club/Establishment's "brokered convention" plans in a 'YUUGE' way.  (But these are probably not realistic scenarios, considering the size of these guys egos.). 

So the question is "who would Trump choose as a running mate?" 

  • Conservative's understand that Trump will never be a conservative in any sense of the word.  With his Ego leading, I believe that he's insulted ALL of the Conservatives, who are generally too pure to sully their reputations with an Opportunist such as Trump. Maybe Lindsey Graham (who is strong on the US defense, but no Conservative) would consider it, but he would have to get his head out of John McCain's ass first....  
  • If Trump chooses to pick liberal RINO, Michael Bloomberg (whom I consider to be the most dangerous Republi-crat in politics today, by threatening to run as a spoiler during Presidential Contests), while they would have the money to beat the political machines, I doubt they could gather enough support to be competitive.  Bloomberg erodes the base that Trump has worked so hard to court.
  • If he were to choose a likable liberal Democrat (does there exist there such a political animal anymore?), his populist message might steal the election from Hillary (the unindicted felon), Joe (still grieving the death of my son, Beau) Biden, or Bernie (the old Hippie Socialist) Sanders.
  • Or is it possible that Trump just expects to replace Hillary as the Democrat Candidate, after her candidacy implodes?
 My best guess is that Trump chooses Sarah Palin as VP, because: 
  1. Maybe Trump thinks that she can 'help to heal the gender rift' he caused with the "Look at that face! Would anyone vote for that? Can you imagine that, the face of our next president?" comment about Carly Fiorina.
  2. Palin is a popular television personality, who has a LARGE following on Facebook.
  3. She's an outsider and a reform candidate that broke away from the Republican Party. 
  4. And while she was picked by then candidate, Senator John McCain (who liked to think himself as a Maverick because he'd cross party lines to look like a reasonable politician), she is the real deal as far as being a Maverick is concerned.
  5. Sarah Palin (and her family, by extension) has already been politically raped by the Democrat Media Apparatchik and was left undefended by the Republi-crat Machine, who thought her too unsophisticated, evangelical and blue-collar redneck to hold a national office.
  6. And, maybe, most importantly, because Payback is a Bitch.  Choosing Sarah Palin for VEEP gives the finger to both the ideological conservatives and the Country Club Establishment Republi-crats at the same time.
 As an ideological Conservative, I'm glad that I left the Republican Party 4 years ago After  watching Mitt Romney become a two-time loser, I knew it was time to jump shipI understood that the Republican  Party was dead, as it lacked the will to "prosecute" a political campaign against a sitting POTUS because of his race.  
This all makes for great political theater.  So sit back if you can and have a beer as you watch this coming comedy of errors, the last dying gasp of the Country Club/Establishment Republicans, as Donald Trump plays Al Czervik.

But be prepared, as the cultural divisions that once added to our greatness as a country, have been turned against us.  Because trust has been broken between these cultural groups, everyone suspects those outside of their own group.  Uneasy alliances have been made, but in the current culture battle between the Liberals of Yankeedom, New Netherlands, New France, the Tidewater Gentry and the Left Coast, versus the Appalachian Borderlanders, the Midlanders, the Deep South, El Norte and the Far West (what Rush Limbaugh would describe as "fly-over country") the ultimate loser is unity of spirit of the United States.

No comments:

Post a Comment