Mile Post 370

Mile Post 370
Mile Post 370

Monday, October 29, 2018

Guest Post=> This Appalachia Life=> Joshua Wilkey=> You Are Not An Imposter

Joshua Wilkey is an inspiration.  We don't share our political beliefs.  But what we do share is Appalachia.  No, I'm not a native, nor do I live in the Mountains.  But Appalachia is more than the immediate region around the Appalachian Mountains.  It's the Scots-Irish or Ulster-Scot immigrant heritage, both good and bad.  And that is where I fit in.  Being Scots-Irish on both sides, I'm a part of it and a proud part at that tradition, with its good parts and bad.

The reason that Josh resonates so deeply with me is that to some extent, I've suffered with Imposter Syndrome.  My dreams for my life were never big enough for the adults in my life.  But for my school mates, they were too big, surpassing them.  I was living above my raising.  So I constantly struggled with the dream.  A dream.  Any dream. It affected EVERY PART of my life.  It continues to affect me, even today.

In order to achieve your dreams, first you've got to have a dream.  You will be excited about it and want to tell others.  Based on my life, I'd recommend against telling just anyone, as it rarely will be accepted, let alone be encouraged by others.  They are far more likely to shoot it and leave you hurt within the wounded mess.  Second, you'll need to have a plan.  Most people aren't able to see flaws in their plans.  They need an outsider whom they can implicitly they trust to review the plan and give it honest criticism, showing where flaws are in the plan.  They might need to revise a part, a section or maybe even the whole plan.  But if you're wise in your choice of advisor, your plan will be viable and you can  achieve your goal.  Even if it seems that you're living above your raisin's.  But once you get there, just be the same person you were before you started down that long path.  be thankful for the people that helped or encouraged you along the way.  Then "pay it forward" to your close friends and family, encouraging them to achieve their dreams.

So without further commentI give you Joshua Wilkey....
You Are Not An Imposter
July 18, 2018





































You belong here.  
If these three words are aimed at you, chances are, you knew it right away when you read them. If you are preparing for college and questioning whether or not you deserve to be there, these words are for you. If you are returning to school after a long break, or as an adult who wasn't able to go to college when you were younger, these words are for you. If you are beginning work toward a GED, these words are for you. Most importantly: If you've ever been told by your family or by your community that you aren't good enough to reach for your dreams, these words are for you. 

I am a college administrator and history professor, and I find myself saying those words every semester, even to students who are by most measures exceptional. They are words that I hope someone would have said to me had I been able to afford to go to college at 18.

You see, I came from what some would call a white trash upbringing. I was the first in my family to finish high school, but at 17, my hateful grandmother told me I wasn't good enough to go to college. We weren't college people, she said. I wasn't smart enough, she told me. I couldn't afford it anyway, so I internalized her words. She told me that I shouldn't get above my raising, so I accepted the idea that college was not for me. I believed her when she told me I wasn't good enough. She was wrong, and thankfully I was eventually able to realize that I deserved a shot at my dreams. With hard work and amazing support from those I met along the way, I was able to make those dreams come true. 

If you are a first generation college student, you might find yourself struggling after a few weeks of college with the notion that you don't belong there. If you suffer from mental or physical illness, or come from an abusive home or relationship, or struggle with a learning disability, you might find yourself wondering if you have what it takes to finish a degree or a semester or a class or even one more day on campus. When those voices of doubt begin their hateful chorus in your head, just keep telling yourself: you belong here. 

For much of my life, when something good happened to me, no matter how hard I worked for it, I immediately found myself scared and worried. It was often hard for me to celebrate my successes because I didn't believe I deserved them. I often thought that my achievements were a series of accidents. Eventually, I feared, the world would catch on and know that I shouldn't have accomplished the things I had. I thought I didn't deserve the good things and it didn't matter that I had worked my ass off for them. 

I came to realize that those fears had a name: imposter syndrome. I struggled with it all of my life until I encountered mentors who understood it and worked to help me overcome it.  When I finally realized what it was, I began to understand that it was a sort of artifact left over in my mind from having grown up poor. 

Today, only rarely do I find myself slipping into the rut of imposter syndrome. I have become substantially more confident in large part because of the way those around me - my wife, my in-laws, a few members of my family, my colleagues, and those who taught me in undergrad and in graduate school - reinforce the idea that I deserve the things I work to earn. Because I experienced it so often in my life, I am able to see it in my students, and my heart silently breaks every time I talk to a student who thinks they don't belong simply because of where they came from. 

My own journey in higher education didn't begin until I was 31. It took that long for my hateful grandmother's lecture about my unworthiness for college to wear off. I dreamed for years about going to college, but I couldn't afford to go after high school, and once I started building a career in business, I saw no way to leave my business to go to school. Finally, in 2010, when I found myself burned out and struggling after the Great Recession, I decided it was time to change my life. I sold my business and spent a year working up the courage to enroll in college. I planned it all very carefully, but even the most detailed plans didn't erase my anxiety. 

I was a terrible student in junior high and high school. I never made above a D in math, and I didn't apply myself in the ways I should have, often because I was so paralyzed by the stigma associated with being poor. I looked around and saw that most of the "smart" kids around me wore nice name-brand clothing. They went on fun vacations and their parents had nice cars and they wore Nike shoes. Because I lacked all those things, my teenage brain thought I lacked the same intellectual capacity as them, too. 

These fears continued to haunt me as I timidly considered going to college. For years, I operated in business with ego and bravado, but it was mostly a facade. That facade finally cracked, though I tried to hide that fact from those around me. The truth is that the prospect of going to college terrified me not because I didn't want to go - I wanted it more than anything - but because I thought I wasn't good enough to succeed. 

Eventually, I decided that I would try it even if I wasn't certain how it would turn out. I started out at the local community college, and continued to believe I would fail miserably. Then, a couple of weeks into the semester, I realized how much I loved learning. By that time, I had begun to get feedback in the form of grades. Those grades were all A's, and they were a balm for my anxious mind. I remember the first day of statistics, the class I feared most. I admitted on my first-day questionnaire that I was terrible at math and feared I would fail the class. The instructor, Hilary Seagle, wrote "we'll work on it together, then," and returned it to me. I'm not sure Hilary knows how much good she did me with those six words, or how grateful I am for them even now. I finished the class with a 97 average. I have since completed two doctoral-level statistics courses, both with A's, and I use statistics every day in my work as a college administrator. Hilary believed in me in a way my grandmother didn't, and it changed my life. 

It turns out that, by the time I made it to college, I wasn't a shitty student anymore. Twelve months after I first stepped foot into a college classroom, I finished an Associate of Arts degree with a 4.0 GPA. After graduating from Southwestern Community College, I enrolled at Western Carolina University, and the same old fears returned. I convinced myself that my work at the community college was a fluke, and that I couldn't succeed at the university. Once again, I was wrong. At WCU, I met amazing professors who simultaneously scared the hell out of me and inspired me to be a better student. By the time I finished Dr. Alex Macaulay's Sophomore Seminar in History, I knew that I wanted to be a college professor. I finally found the courage to admit that I was NOT an imposter. Thanks to Dr. Macaulay and so many others, I found my place. For the first time in my life, I felt like I belonged. I determined then that I would make it my primary goal to someday help my students get there, too. 

These days, when I feel the imposter syndrome begin to return, I look at this picture from the day I received my master's degree. I think about how surreal it felt to put on that gown and hood and walk across the stage. I think about how much it means that Hilary and Dr. Macaulay and so many others believed in me. I think about how my in-laws, Dave and Katie, my wife Betsy, and my aunt Sis, are tireless advocates for my education in ways many members of my own family never were. I also think about what happened after this picture was taken. 

Shortly after finishing my master's degree, I was offered admission to the University of Alabama's doctoral program in higher education administration. It was my first choice doctoral program, and when I applied, I braced myself for a rejection that never materialized. For a time, between being accepted and beginning the program, the imposter syndrome came back. I wondered if I was cut out to study at a prestigious flagship university in a program with world-class faculty. After all, it's a big jump from growing up in a trailer in North Carolina to attending class on University Blvd. in Tuscaloosa. When I went to Tuscaloosa for my orientation, though, I realized that, just like at Southwestern Community College and Western Carolina University, I would be working with faculty members who believed in me. When I got to know Dr. Frankie Laanan and Dr. Arleene Breaux, two of my professors, I realized that they, too, came from backgrounds like mine. It turns out that, even as a doctoral student, my background wasn't my destiny. 

When I was 17, the thing that led my grandmother to tell me that I wasn't good enough was me telling her that I wanted to go to Brevard College after high school. I fell in love with BC when I went there in high school for a district concert band competition, and I dreamed of being a student there. I never had the chance to study there, but today, I'm a member of the Brevard College faculty. I am also the college's academic compliance and assessment officer. I don't know if my grandmother knows, and I don't really care. I finally realized that sometimes the only way to beat imposter syndrome is to cut the people who perpetuate it out of your life. 

Failure is generally an objective measure. You will not have failed simply because you feel like a failure. When those imposter syndrome demons come for you, think of where you are now. If you are farther along now than you once were, even if the path to here really sucked, know that that progress is meaningful. I grew up in a world where I considered myself to be white trash because I thought that's how others saw me. Today, I'm teaching at a wonderful college that I never thought I'd even get the privilege to attend. I take credit for very little of this, because so many have bolstered my hard work with grace and kindness and encouragement. But I know this: the fact that I am here is not an accident. I no longer go to sleep at night fearing that I'll somehow be discovered as a fraud and stripped of all I have accomplished. No one is going to come rip my diplomas off my office wall, and no one can go back and revoke all the A's I earned in college. 

So, if you find yourself reading this because someone saw it on the internet and thought it might fit your circumstances, let me tell you: You belong here. Wherever here is. If you worked your ass off to get where you are, know that you deserve to be there. If other people reached out to pull you up along the way, you still deserve to be there, and you owe it to those who helped you not only to say "thank you," but to now reach back yourself and help others who are struggling as you once struggled. 

Tags:

students



Matthew 24:12: A Prophecy Fulfilled?

The Bible is an interesting book.  As a Christian, I consider it to be “the Words or GOD” written by faithful scribes (writers), inspired by GOD to record history, wisdom, knowledge, prophecy or instruction that it may be passed to others as a guide to how we should live a life of purpose, instead of “just stumbling through the motions of life.”

Most modern people think that we have knowledge enough to go through life without needing instruction.  We’re proud and think (or even say) “I’ve got this.  I understand what’s going on.  I don’t need advice or help.”  That’s a foolish attitude to have.  Beyond that, it’s short-sighted to refuse advice from those who’ll be passed the point where you’re at in life.

As the world turns to less and less civility, Christians look to the Bible to see what's coming.  Lots of people go to "the Revelation of Saint John" to look at his vision.  Others go to see what the Old Testament prophet Daniel saw in his GOD given visions.  But you'd be wise to listen to Jesus himself as recorded in Matthew 24 and 25, commonly known as the Olivet Discourse (from when he taught this on the Mount of Olives).  One of the passages, Chapter 24, verse 12, states "...as lawlessness  spreads, men's love for for one another will grow cold."  Gee, that feels familiar, especially after 8 years of Obama and then the election of Donald J. Trump as President of the US.  While Scott Adams, says that we are suffering from cognitive dissonance, where one side sees something entirely different from the other side, it's become much more heated and even down right nasty.
  • We've had Hillary Clinton refuse to accept Donald J. Trump won the Electoral College Vote for President.  She officially started "the Resistance."  
  • We've had "Mad Maxine" Waters tell supporters that if the Democrats win the House, they will Impeach Donald Trump.  
  • We've had Crazy Bernie the Socialist Sanders incite a follower through his "hyperbole" to kill Republican Congressmen.  Fortunately, only Steve Scalise was shot.  This was attempted Murder in the first degree. And while it was serious enough that Scalise could have died, he survived.  The shooter, however was killed by the Capitol Police, who engaged the shooter with handguns, when the shooter had a rifle.
  • We've had Mad Maxine tell supporters to "Get in their faces and tell them that we don't want them around anymore."
  • We've had Sarah Sanders and her In-Laws run out of a restaurant, by its owner (despite the fact that her In-Law family are Liberal Democrats) by protesters.  This is disturbing the peace and discrimination and denial of service.
  • We've had Ted Cruise and his Wife Run out of a restaurant in Washington, DC. by protesters.  This is disturbing the peace and denial of service.
  • We had Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and his wife Elaine Chao harassed in a restaurant, but they did not run. This is attempted disturbing the peace.
  • We had a "disturbed woman" Claim that now Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her to a point where she feared for her life, when they were in high school, although she could not tell how she got home and the 3 witnesses she said could corroborate her story EACH DENIED that Kavanaugh was there.  This was slander.
  • The Democrat Senators on the Judicial Committee, having no way to stop the Majority Republican Senators from approving Kavanaugh, tried to impugn and ruin his character as a sexual predator, tried to defame him as an Alcoholic to get him to withdraw from Trump's appointment and tried to say that he was emotionally unstable and unfit to be a Supreme Court Justice.  This is nothing short of character assassination and slander.
  • Former Attorney General, Eric Holder, mimicking Obama's "Chicago Way" said that "if the Republicans go low, We kick them."  This is assault, possible battery (if someone actually kicks someone else) and possibly inciting a riot.
King Solomon was reputed to be the wisest man that ever walked the planet.  He realized he was lacking in wisdom to be the King of Israel, so he prayed for it.  As the story unfolds, GOD revealed to Solomon that because he had asked for wisdom, rather than for something that could be wasted and abused in life, like money or power, that he would grant them all to him during his life.  Solomon is reported as the author of most of the Proverbs, a type of wisdom, written as Jewish Poetry.  One of the lines that comes to mind is Proverbs 15:1 A Kind Word Turneth Away Wrath.  However, we no longer see kind words and Lawlessness is greatly increasing.  Form my vantage, Prophecy is being fulfilled before our very eyes.


Saturday, October 27, 2018

Guest Post=> The Burning Platform=> Killing Lincoln

Well, here's the deal:  As people, we want to have a strong leader to follow.  We want a charismatic speaker with a vision and plan to get things done.  So we elevate a leader to "god-like status:"  He/She can do no wrong.  Except that when he/she is examined under the microscope, he's no different than us.  He/She's flawed, petty, motivated by carnal power.  In the Bible, we hear the term Feet of Clay (First used by Daniel, as he interpreted a dream of King Nebuchadnezzar).  Feet of clay are symbolic of weakness due to the ease with which clay is shattered and broken.  It is understood that the clay's impurity (as compared to metals) is its weakness.  And so it is with our leaders:  They are flawed and weak.

Abraham Lincoln is looked at as the savior of our country.  He has been given the name Honest Abe. And since the Civil Rights movement occurred about 50 years ago, we remember him for his Emancipation Proclamation, where he freed the slaves (though only in the Confederacy!).  Yet Lincoln wasn't as much of an abolitionist as he's made out to be.  He left the slaves that were in the north as slaves and he did nothing for blacks in America.  Yes, he saved the Union, but abolition was a radical issue and his Emancipation of Southern Slaves wasn't announced until after the Union had won the decisive battle of the war in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania.

The truth is, abolition was unpopular, as was the war itself.  There were conscription riots in many northern cities and many citizens were too busy trying to make a living to worry about Southern States exercising their Constitutional Right to leave the Union.  While they were rebellious against a Government that viewed the South as its Colony, dedicated to supplying Northern Cotton Mills, so they could make cloth, how was this different form American Colonists who rebelled against a Kingdom that used it to supply Resources to the Mother Country and build its economy at the expense of the colonists?

There is an uncomfortable truth here:  Slavery is wrong and many people who practiced it were drawn into further evil, treating their slaves as less than human.  Some owners were good to their slaves, seeing them as indentured servants, though they were kept longer than the traditional 7 years that most indentured servants endured.  Other slave owners were reluctant:  Robert E. Lee never had slaves of his own.  He inherited slaves from his Father-in-Law and set them free at his death, because of laws that made it difficult for Virginians to sell slaves.

The other part of this uncomfortable truth was that Lincoln violated the Southerner's Constitutional Rights to leave the Union of States.  His Generals (Sherman, Sheridan and Grant) wreaked havoc and intense poverty on Southerners.  His soldiers were war criminals, destroying Farms, Houses, Animals and Equipment (even Churches) to break the Infidels who dared leave the Union, even if it meant they died of starvation.  Lincoln was above all else a politician, making decisions that were politically expedient, sacrificing principles for politics.  He was no hero, running roughshod over citizens' Constitutional Rights.  And the only redeeming tendency that he displayed was that he talked about forgiving the Southerners who wanted to secede from the Union after defeating them, but he never got that chance as his life was abruptly ended.  He is symbolic to the Republican Party, but it is highly questionable whether he was truthfully a good symbol of it.

One of the unmistakable features of modern conservatives is their not-so-veiled hostility toward heritage America. Some attribute this to ethnic hostility, given the infiltration of the Right by neoconservatives. Initially, these people made the journey from communism to anti-communism and were never conservative in temperament. Of course, the royal lifestyles of many conservatives has made them into unpleasant snobs. All of that is true to one degree or another, but it obscures an important point about modern conservatives.
The Official Right has a different interpretation of American history than most normal white people. Blacks, of course, fixate on slavery and segregation, so their view of American history is through hostile eyes. Whites generally accept the conventional narrative. If you ask a normal white American to tell the story of America, he will start with something about how the Puritans came to America to escape religious tyranny. Once the colonist got things going, the King tried to tax the colonists, so there was a revolution.
The Official Right has a different view of American history. They look at the Founding as an imperfect result. First and foremost, they view the tolerance of slavery, and the enshrining of it in the Constitution, as a great sin. Rather than embrace the principle of liberty for all, because all men are created equal, as expressed in the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution created a compromise. While all citizens were free and equal under the law, slavery created a class of people who were not citizens.
In the view of the Straussians, the intellectual movement based on the writing and teaching of Leo Strauss, the Constitution was not just a flawed document, but an immoral one, because it violated that core principle of equality. From this perspective, the Civil War was a purification of the country, removing the origin sin of slavery and forming a new Union, based in equality and universal liberty. For the Official Right, America was reborn in the Civil War and Lincoln was the Moses who ushered in the new republic.
This is why the Official Right has a Lincoln fetish. For example, Rich Lowry, the dull-witted editor of National Review, wrote a Lincoln bookThe neocons treat Lincoln as if he is an Old Testament prophet. Jonah Goldbergregularly writes about Lincoln as if he is a god on Mt. Olympus. For the Official Right, Lincoln is the Founding Father. Those guys who wrote the Constitution are not entirely dismissed, but they are secondary figures in the story. For the Official Right, the American story starts with the Gettysburg Address.
A big part of this is due to a guy named Harry Jaffa, who became something of a cult leader for the neoconservatives. His framing of the Civil War as the second founding, allowed the neocons to see themselves as proof of the concept. The original founding excluded them from the narrative, while the second founding not only included them in the story of America, it made them proof of its righteousness. Lincoln’s America was not just for the founding stock. It was for whoever could get control of it.
Of course, the old WASP side of the Official Right was also willing to embrace this notion of the second founding. Since northern conservatism was mostly just a clean up crew that followed Progressivism around, the story of the second founding made their unwillingness to oppose the Left seem noble. Since Reconstruction, the role of what passes for conservatism has been to fill the void after every great spasm of Progressive activism overturned the old order. The Official Right’s job was to make it all work again.
The problem with this telling of history is it assumes a core immorality of the founding stock and the institutions they created. It also locks in the notion that it is the role of Northern reformers to be the guardians of civic morality. The Left need only appeal to the notion of universal equality and liberty and their opponents were disarmed. After all, the party of Lincoln, if it stands for anything, stands for universal equality and liberty. The conservatism of Harry Jaffa is nothing but a complex apologia for Progressivism.
A fun gag is to talk to the grandees of the Official Right about Lincoln’s actual views on race relations. The quickest way to get hurled into the void by angry Buckleyites is to quote Lincoln on the issue. The fact is, Lincoln was a man of his age, when it came to race, despite his zealous opposition to slavery. Like all abolitionists, he did not care about the slaves, he cared about the slave holder. That was the soul he sought to save. The slaves themselves were just props on the stage of the morality play that was abolitionism.
The Official Right can never accept this. One of the criticisms of Harry Jaffa on this score was that he was not a scholar of Lincoln, so much as the chief polemicist for the cult that formed around him. His telling of history left out anything that contradicted his concept of the second founding. This is true not only from an academic perspective, but also from a human one. This telling of history leaves out most of the country. For anyone outside the northern alliance, their ancestors are either villains or non-entities in the narrative.
That’s the source of the low level hostility toward heritage America that has been a feature of the Official Right and that is now its face to the rest of us. Since Gettysburg, the story of America has been the story of northern hegemony. On one side are the reformers and fanatics, always looking for a reason to put the lash to the legacy population. On the other side are the so-called conservatives, who hold most of the same views, but see their role as making the latest fads work, so the overall American project can move forward.
The Lincoln fetish that blossomed among so-called conservatives in the middle of the last century was a form of Stockholm Syndrome. Unable to conjure and sustain a moral opposition to the Left, they embraced Lincoln as their Moses. Their acquiescence to the Left was the result of deeply held principles with roots in the founding, the second founding. They were champions of “a new birth of freedom — that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.”
This is the great challenge in attempting to overturn the Judeo-Puritan orthodoxy that defines the America ruling class. It requires more than just defeating present day arguments over public policy. It means restoring large chunks of history that have been systematically erased by our zealous overlords. Killing off the cult of Lincoln and the political movement it animates, means telling a better story to the people charged with tearing it down. That inevitably means killing Lincoln as the founder of the nation.

******************************************************************************

Once again, history is written by the winners of any conflict.  The truth isn't necessarily history....




Thoughts on the late E. Hunter Harrison's Precision Scheduled Railroading, the Magic Elixir for Maximum Profitability and Low Operation Ratios

Note:  When I first published this post in October 2018, Norfolk Southern had not yet succumbed to the magic elixir known as Precision Scheduled Railroading. They'd tried closing classification yards that they thought were superfluous (DeButts Yard in Chattanooga) only to find that it seriously bit them in the a$$.  The resulting train stoppage on lines and west to Memphis, Birmingham, the Meridian Speedway and New Orleans was a wake up call to the Management:  You can't just cut assets without understanding what removing those assets will do to your operations.  As a result, Norfolk Southern decided to redesign its operations with a "clean sheet" method. Their new plan TOP 21 (Thoroughbred Operating Procedures 2021), is a modified version of Precision Scheduled Railroading.  NS decided to look at what worked and made sense before trying radical solutions that caused operations to slow down and alienate customers to the point of complain about a lack of service or  to change to an alternate means of transportation.  So far NS has increased lengths of trains and reduced train starts, which cuts crew costs and has announced that trains would use distributed power units which saves fuel.  They've also announced that they will add manifest cars to intermodal and unit trains they can get them to their destinations quicker without impeding the progress of those trains.

*********************************************************************************

Precision Scheduled Railroading, the wonder drug for railroad profits, as advertised by the late showman E. Hunter HarrisonWho'd led the Illinois Central Railroad, the Canadian National Railway, after it acquired the Illinois Central, the Canadian Pacific Railroad and finally CSX where he succumbed to chronic Pulmonary Disease.  Lauded for its effects on profits and dividends by Investment bankers, sometimes it works and sometimes not so much.

Lance Fritz at the Union Pacific finally succumbed to the pressure from investment bankers in September 2018 as he agreed to a limited, non-disruptive implementation of PSR.  Patrick Ottensmeyer announced that Kansas City Southern would follow suit, because of its extensive trackage rights and interchanges on the UP.  That left Norfolk Southern announcing in its October 2018 earnings call that after and despite a record low 65.2% operating ratio, record crew productivity and record quarterly profits that they would also implement limited, non-disruptive elements of PSR.  Only Burlington Northern Santa Fe, who is owned by Berkshire-Hathaway, did not succumb to the flavor of the day and take the "green pill" that's been demanded by investment bankers.

You might remember that Jim Squires and his operating team at Norfolk Southern tried to follow Hunter Harrison and CSX in Precision Scheduled Railroading, by closing down classification yards and flat switching instead of hump yard switching by closing DeButts Yard altogether (Chattanooga) last year.  They took that one on the chin, with delays that basically shutdown the Western part of the old Southern Railway.  They finally are getting it fixed, where operations from Atlanta to Meridian and New Orleans is getting back to normal:  They're running some on the old Central of Georgia and DeButts Yard is back open.  Yet the investment bankers still call for the implementation of PSR, with the  question "Why can't Norfolk Southern be more like CSX?"  Flat switching is being tested before bulldozing the hump yard completely.  So NS is taking a measured approach to PSR and not going blindly, following Harrison (although now gone) again back down that rabbit hole.  They're knuckling under, somewhat to the investment bankers.  They're probably just buying time,  However there are always operational improvements to be made, that will positively affect the bottom line. 

  • The thing that no one wants to admit is that Precision Scheduled Railroading worked great on the Illinois Central.  Why?  Because it is essentially a straight line conveyor system, with ends at Chicago (a marketing center) and New Orleans (a port).  Harrison designed his system around that particular stretch of railroad.  Just because it is optimized and worked for IC doesn't mean that it will work anywhere else that has different operating characteristics.
  • So, it worked less well on the Canadian National with the addition of the Illinois Central, Wisconsin Central Duluth Missabe & Iron Range and Elgin Joliet & Eastern Railroads, as the system became a "T," with the CN connecting through the EJ&E, WC and DM&IR.  If Harrison hadn't gotten his hands on the EJ&E, he would have been screwed.  But Harrison had to run customers off to make PSR with the new CN-IC work the way it did on the IC alone.  CN-IC is trying to win those customers back.
  • It barely works on the CP, as Chicago is still a pinch point.  Yes, CP could run trains to two different market centers.  But they need to do Hundreds of Millions of Dollars on Trackage Infrastructure, to make the railroad fluid when hauling Seasonal Grain Trains and Oil Trains that are based on Cyclical Demand, based on Crude Oil Cost for Oil Sands and Frac'ed Shale Oil being lower than the cost of Mid-East Crude oil Shipped by Tankers..  Yeah, the CP can run the North Shore of Lake Superior to get to Mississauga and Toronto, but the curves and grades require a lot of power and that mainline generates few originating loads.  I believe the Editors at Trains had it right when they said Harrison wanted either CSX or NS to gain access to the Indiana Harbor Belt Railroad.  NS was the first choice because (1) they own that pesky little 6 mile stretch of track that CP needs to get from IHB to CP trackage just East of Chicago and (2) With the completion of NS' new yard, CP could sell the yard in Bensenville, Illinois, next to O'Hare Airport, and add to their industrial park just outside of that yard.Chicago through Detroit and Windsor to Mississauga and Toronto is table top flat in comparison to the North Shore.  And as long as CP has a contentious relationship with the NS, they aren't going to get  to use that route enough to rebuild the Tunnel under the Detroit River to be able to run Double Stack Intermodal cars to their eastern markets efficiently.  When they couldn't convince NS to merge or let Harrison take over shortly after Jim Squires had been made CEO, they went after CSX, when Michael Ward announced that he was retiring.
  • The ONLY REASON THAT PSR could EVER WORK ON CSX is that Michael Ward and his team (including the VERY TALENTED Cindy Sanborn) had been working on "semi double-tracking" the "Iron Triangle" from Jacksonville, FL to Chicago, Illinois (By way of Birmingham, AL and Nashville, TN), Chicago to New York City (via Cleveland Ohio, Erie, PA, and Albany, NY)  and New York to Jacksonville, (via Baltimore, MD and Florence, SC).  I guess Jim Foote and his Leadership team believe they can make enough money hauling to these 3 feeder points and that what's left that's been relegated to feeder status, with reduced maintenance will not have traffic dry up.
Focusing on the Iron Triangle alone, CSX accidentally told everyone that they were willing to sell off the B&O mainline from Northwestern Ohio to Baltimore, a Mainline they'd just spent Hundreds of Millions on to Daylight Tunnels and Raise clearances for Double Stacked Containers.  They quickly walked that idea back.  They even floated the idea of dismantling the Northwest Ohio Intermodal Terminal and making it a Block Swapping yard.  Truthfully, doing these two things would have given the Wheeling & Lake Erie the perfect opportunity to buy the old B&O and get trackage rights into the Northwest Ohio terminal and yard turning it into a great Regional Railroad that would directly compete with CSX for automobile traffic from Metro Detroit-Toledo (a manufacturing center) to the Port of Baltimore.  (This would allow Wheeling and Lake Erie to Implement Precision Scheduled Railroading!). You'd have thought that CSX would have picked up on that fact BEFORE talking about selling the B&O.  Now BNSF is partnering to run double stacked intermodal trains from the West Coast into North Baltimore, probably saving the Northwest Ohio Intermodal Terminal.  As I said in this blog post, now all CSX has to do is wait for a year or so until the customers that needed the service is to see how reliable it is.  Then it can spring its own service as a lower cost alternative.

We will have to wait to see what the limited non-disruptive implementation of PRS will bring.  If UP's Implementation works anything like Norfolk Southern's, the Houston Texas "log jamb" that occurred after UP absorbed the Southern Pacific will look like a blip.  Kansas City Southern's Houston Area trackage rights won't mean a thing since traffic will stopped on the UP.  And if the Host Railroad can't get its trains over the railroad, there's no way that the railroad with trackage rights will get there trains across that section of railroad.

Sunday, October 7, 2018

So, Let’s Test My Theory on Transcontinental Container Traffic (from LA/Long Beach to North Baltimore, Ohio) - Shortening the Supply Chain

The Railroad Industry has been experiencing some dramatic changes in the past few decades:  

  • Fracking and Cheap and Expansive Amounts of Crude Oil and Natural Gas 
  • Pipelines, both constructed and denied Construction, 
  • Investment Fund Takeovers 
  • The Obama Administration's EPA orchestrated death of coal 
  • Hunter Harrison’s Precision Scheduled Railroading, 
  • The Weaponization of Investment Funds to take over the Board of Directors of a Railroad 
  • to Hunter Harrison’s wanting to Merge the Canadian Pacific into a Transcontinental Railroad System 
  • The Emphasis on Intermodal Freight as a replacement for Coal Revenue, 
  • The Elimination Of Hump Classification Yards 
  • The Panama Canal’s new PanaMax lane and Larger Container Ships Transversing the Panama Canal 
  • The Opening More Intermodal Containers to Atlantic Coast Ports.  
  • Investors Demanding that Railroads' Operating Ratios are so extraordinarily low, as to Minimize Capital Infrastructure Investment and Run Off Business that is not very profitable.
Each of these events has been an upheaval of the Railroad Industry as we knew it.  Some turned out to be non-events:  Others are Existential Threats to the very concept of Railroading as we knew it (because railroading has already changed!).

Let’s look at this news release.  On October 2, 2018, BNSF announced it is launching a new Intermodal Lane from the twin ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach to CSX's North Baltimore Intermodal Hub that will start on October 29th.  The companies will run 5 trains each way per week.  Apparently someone sees a need to serve "the Ohio Valley."  My best guess is that this train would provide auto parts for Honda (Honda of America Mfg. Marysville, Ohio and Honda Performance Manufacturing Center, Honda Manufacturing of Indiana, in Greensburg, Indiana, and Honda of America Mfg., Inc. East Liberty, Indiana), as well as Toyota Manufacturing Facilities (in Buffalo, West Virginia, Princeton, Indiana and Georgetown, Kentucky), Subaru (Lafayette, Indiana Plant), and maybe even Hino's (Williamstown, West Virginia) Truck Plant.  Guessing once again, maybe the westbound trains will pick up engines from Cummins' and Engines, Transmissions and Drive Axles, from Detroit (Daimler Trucks North America Brand) and Eaton and Steer Axles from Meritor on their way to PACCAR Plants in Tijuana, Navistar International Plants in Ciudad Laredo and Freightliner's Plant in Portland, Oregon.  Once again what's in the containers and their end destinations are just speculation - and it is not really important, .  

But even if there is something other than this being shipped, there is an on going need that has been recognized and BNSF has found a way to  serve that need, partnering with CSX to deliver train loads of containers (5 per week) to North Baltimore, Ohio, where they will be drayed to their final destinations.  I would guess that this is a just in time movement (where manufacturing parts are delivered as soon as they are needed, rather than warehoused and stored.  This keeps Inventory levels low at the factory, but shifts the stored inventory to being in containers awaiting to be loaded on a train to their end destination the Containers filled with parts stacked at the ports in (#4 by volume) Savannah, (#3) New York-North Jersey or (# 2) Long Beach or (#1) LA and on ships heading to those locations have replaced those parts previously stocked in warehouses.  But anything that impedes the timely delivery of these containers could cause shutdown of the assembly lines paying workers to stand around, because their part of the assembly process has stopped because there are no parts with which to build).  I would guess BNSF will provide 'run through power,' with their locomotives powering trains both east and west, eliminating locomotive changes.  

But let's look back at my theory of the Panama Canal's new larger lane for the new PanaMax (maximum dimension of the ship that can pass through the locks of the Panama Canal) Container Ships.  Back on December 27, 2015, I postulated that Containers bound for points east of the Missouri River would eventually be routed to East Coast Ports on the Atlantic Ocean (and the Gulf of Mexico), because more containers per ship can be carried directly to Savannah or New York-North Jersey.  This would make the Supply Chain Cheaper as water transport from the Pacific through the Panama Canal and to the East Coast will now be cheaper as the volume per shipment has increased.  This is similar to running fewer trains that are longer.  Even when it takes a container longer time to travel by sea to an East Coast Port, the rail passage from the port intermodal terminal to its dray point is considerably shorter.

Back in December of 2015, I looked at the Santa Fe Trans-Con Route and gave a SWOT Analysis of Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and ThreatsHere is what I wrote:

    To consider why these routes will loose traffic, let's apply the SWOT analysis (Strength,Weakness, Opportunity, Threat) to each of the western transcontinental lines that are shipping containers to the eastern US.

Santa Fe Transcon
  • S=Established, Well Run, High Speed CTC Equipped Double Track Routing From LA/Long Beach to Chicago 
  • W=Distance to Chicago, Interchange at Chicago, Crossing Multiple Mountain Ranges, Shared Trackage at Cajon Pass, Congestion around Los Angeles, Lots of Traffic
  • O=Most opportunities with this mature route have been taken
  • T=Lack of Capacity, Shorter Routes with less demanding geography
Since this was written, BNSF has made plans to Triple Track and Quadruple Track both Fueling Terminals and Crew Change Terminals, to eliminate multiple  Weaknesses, "Bottle-Neck Delays," that occur during these routine terminal operational occurrences.

Now let's look at the Threat(s):  CSX has a number of shorter (, if not more direct) routes with less challenging geography.  Starting in Savannah, 1) they could run double stacked Container Trains either South to Waycross, then North toward Chicago and into North Baltimore, 2) Starting in Savannah, they could run North to NYC and Albany, turning west to North Baltimore, 3) But the Gem is starting in Savannah, running north to Baltimore and running the Old B&O to North Baltimore.  The ACL , RF&P and B&O into Baltimore is relatively flat, but it's Single Track at least up through the RF&P.  From Baltimore to Sand Patch it's Double Tracked, with clearances for Double Stacked Containers.  After a short single track on the far side of Sand Patch, it's Double Track all the way into North Baltimore (and further into Chicago), relatively low grade (after all the B&O did establish the standard for grades on the railroads) and the Summit of the Alleghenies is far lower in altitude than the Santa Fe in California, Arizona, New Mexico or Colorado.  I doubt that CSX would even have to refuel the locomotives on the trip, saving time and costing less for operations

Meanwhile, CSX is letting BNSF establish and prove this business venture. Soon after the venture is proven profitable, I expect them to enter in to the fray as a single company, lower (the Lowest?) cost provider for rail service delivery of containers from the Container Port to the dray point terminal.

However, the unsung routing could even be from Savannah to Columbia, SC to Spartanburg, SC to Elkhorn City, KY to Shelbyville, KY to Cincinnati, OH into North Baltimore.  While single stack clearance requires more trains and greater length trains with distributed power (cutting profits - due to the old Spartanburg Tunnel - under the Southern Ry. Mainline and other clearances both north and south of the Clinchfield Railroad proper), this line with a single train each way, each day, to and from Johnson City, TN was built with lower grades and better curves, to haul longer coal trains with less power than other crossings of the Appalachian Mountains and will keep trains off Michael Ward's "Intermodal Conveyor System" triangle.

So, let's see just how long BNSF's joint venture Intermodal Container Service with the CSX lasts, before CSX shows "How Freight Moves in the 21st Century" with a shorter and less costly service from over seas to the Ohio Valley. 

Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Guest Post => John Rappaport => Social Media Censorship - Here Are the Deep Basics


We haven't been paying attention....


Social media censorship—here are the deep basics


by Jon Rappoport
August 20, 2018
(To join our email list, click here.)
Orchestrated un-creation of the fabric of free speech—this is what we’re seeing. 
Several of the biggest “conservative/libertarian” figures on the Net—Alex Jones, Dennis Prager, Stefan Molyneux, among others—have recently been banned/censored by Google, Facebook, Twitter, and other social media companies.
When you ask why this is happening, one obvious answer pops up right away:
These social media corporations are fulfilling desperate pleas from major news outlets, who have been losing audience, in massive chunks, to the likes of Jones, Prager, and Molyneaux.
The newspapers and TV news networks came to end of their rope. They had no solutions to their problem—so they went to Google, Facebook, and others, and said, HELP US. Meaning: Censor our competition.
On one level, understanding censorship is that simple.
But then you have to ask yourself this question: Why would Google, Facebook, and other social media giants bend to the needs of mainstream news outlets?
These social media operations are richer and bigger than mainstream news. They could easily have said: “No, we like open forums and a wide variety of opinion, and we think people should be able to deal with ideas they don’t like. We stand for an open society, and we vigorously defend the 1st Amendment.”
But they didn’t say that. Instead, they’re enacting bans and censorship. Why?
The obvious answer staring us in the face is: Google and Facebook and You Tube, for example, the largest social media corporations, are not “free companies.”
They’ve been in bed with the intelligence community for a long time, and they favor wall to wall surveillance of the population. They favor the “liberal” version of a policed State, where correct opinions are let in the door and incorrect opinions are shut down.
Let’s quickly review a bit of Facebook history:
The big infusion of cash that sent Mark Zuckerberg and his fledgling college enterprise on their way came from Accel Partners, in 2004.
Jim Breyer, head of Accel, attached a $13 million rocket to Facebook, and nothing has ever been the same.
Earlier that same year, a man named Gilman Louie joined the board of the National Venture Capital Association of America (NVCA). The chairman of NVCA? Jim Breyer. Gilman Louie happened to be the first CEO of the important CIA start-up, In-Q-Tel.
In-Q-Tel was founded in 1999, with the express purpose of funding companies that could develop technology the CIA would use to “gather data.”
That’s not the only connection between Jim Breyer and the CIA’s man, Gilman Louie. In 2004, Louie went to work for BBN Technologies, headed up by Breyer. Dr. Anita Jones also joined BBN at that time. Jones had worked for In-Q-Tel and was an adviser to DARPA, the Pentagon’s technology department that helped develop the Internet.
With these CIA/DARPA connections, it’s no surprise that Jim Breyer’s jackpot investment in Facebook is not part of the popular mythology of Mark Zuckerberg. Better to omit it. Who could fail to realize that Facebook, with its endless stream of personal data, and its tracking capability, is an ideal CIA asset?
What about Google?
Read Nafeez Ahmed’s (twitter) excellent multi-part series at medium.com, “How the CIA made Google”:
“INSURGE INTELLIGENCE (twitter) can now reveal the vast extent to which the US intelligence community is implicated in nurturing the web platforms we know today…The lynchpin of this story is the corporation that in many ways defines the 21st century with its unobtrusive omnipresence: Google.”
“Google styles itself as a friendly, funky, user-friendly tech firm that rose to prominence through a combination of skill, luck, and genuine innovation. This is true. But it is a mere fragment of the story. In reality, Google is a smokescreen behind which lurks the US military-industrial complex.”
“The inside story of Google’s rise, revealed here for the first time, opens a can of worms that goes far beyond Google, unexpectedly shining a light on the existence of a parasitical network driving the evolution of the US national security apparatus, and profiting obscenely from its operation…”

In other words, social media aren’t banning and censoring “conservatives/libertarians” merely as a favor to their kissing cousins who run major news outlets—no, this goes much deeper.
This is the intelligence and Pentagon communities, with their attendant neo-cons and military contractors, defending their version of the “new world.”
Anyone with a large online audience, who has strong opinions which resist and run counter to this new world vision, is considered an obstacle, and a target for censorship.
The intelligence/Pentagon vision? Endless wars; endless waves of migration engendering chaos; multinational corporations free to roam the planet, set up shop in hellholes, produce their goods for relative pennies, sell those goods anywhere with no tariffs, thus undermining local economies and centralizing economic power in fewer hands; the vast expansion of surveillance and censorship (which go hand in hand); widening poverty, which makes more and more people dependent on government…
Social media censorship isn’t merely a bunch of knee-jerk liberals trying to stop ideas they don’t like. It is that, but it’s much, much, much more.
Google and Facebook are nurtured creatures of the national security state.