So, Let’s Test My Theory on Transcontinental Container Traffic (from LA/Long Beach to North Baltimore, Ohio) - Shortening the Supply Chain

The Railroad Industry has been experiencing some dramatic changes in the past few decades:  

• Fracking and Cheap and Expansive Amounts of Crude Oil and Natural Gas 
• Pipelines, both constructed and denied Construction, 
• Investment Fund Takeovers 
• The Obama Administration's EPA orchestrated death of coal 
• Hunter Harrison’s Precision Scheduled Railroading, 
• The Weaponization of Investment Funds to take over the Board of Directors of a Railroad 
• to Hunter Harrison’s wanting to Merge the Canadian Pacific into a Transcontinental Railroad System 
• The Emphasis on Intermodal Freight as a replacement for Coal Revenue, 
• The Elimination Of Hump Classification Yards 
• The Panama Canal’s new PanaMax lane and Larger Container Ships Transversing the Panama Canal 
• The Opening More Intermodal Containers to Atlantic Coast Ports.  
• Investors Demanding that Railroads' Operating Ratios are so extraordinarily low, as to Minimize Capital Infrastructure Investment and Run Off Business that is not very profitable.

Each of these events has been an upheaval of the Railroad Industry as we knew it.  Some turned out to be non-events:  Others are Existential Threats to the very concept of Railroading as we knew it (because railroading has already changed!).

Let’s look at this news release.  On October 2, 2018, BNSF announced it is launching a new Intermodal Lane from the twin ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach to CSX's North Baltimore Intermodal Hub that will start on October 29th.  The companies will run 5 trains each way per week.  Apparently someone sees a need to serve "the Ohio Valley."  My best guess is that this train would provide auto parts for Honda (Honda of America Mfg. Marysville, Ohio and Honda Performance Manufacturing Center, Honda Manufacturing of Indiana, in Greensburg, Indiana, and Honda of America Mfg., Inc. East Liberty, Indiana), as well as Toyota Manufacturing Facilities (in Buffalo, West Virginia, Princeton, Indiana and Georgetown, Kentucky), Subaru (Lafayette, Indiana Plant), and maybe even Hino's (Williamstown, West Virginia) Truck Plant.  Guessing once again, maybe the westbound trains will pick up engines from Cummins' and Engines, Transmissions and Drive Axles, from Detroit (Daimler Trucks North America Brand) and Eaton and Steer Axles from Meritor on their way to PACCAR Plants in Tijuana, Navistar International Plants in Ciudad Laredo and Freightliner's Plant in Portland, Oregon.  Once again what's in the containers and their end destinations are just speculation - and it is not really important, .  

But even if there is something other than this being shipped, there is an on going need that has been recognized and BNSF has found a way to  serve that need, partnering with CSX to deliver train loads of containers (5 per week) to North Baltimore, Ohio, where they will be drayed to their final destinations.  I would guess that this is a just in time movement (where manufacturing parts are delivered as soon as they are needed, rather than warehoused and stored.  This keeps Inventory levels low at the factory, but shifts the stored inventory to being in containers awaiting to be loaded on a train to their end destination the Containers filled with parts stacked at the ports in (#4 by volume) Savannah, (#3) New York-North Jersey or (# 2) Long Beach or (#1) LA and on ships heading to those locations have replaced those parts previously stocked in warehouses.  But anything that impedes the timely delivery of these containers could cause shutdown of the assembly lines paying workers to stand around, because their part of the assembly process has stopped because there are no parts with which to build).  I would guess BNSF will provide 'run through power,' with their locomotives powering trains both east and west, eliminating locomotive changes.  

But let's look back at my theory of the Panama Canal's new larger lane for the new PanaMax (maximum dimension of the ship that can pass through the locks of the Panama Canal) Container Ships.  Back on December 27, 2015, I postulated that Containers bound for points east of the Missouri River would eventually be routed to East Coast Ports on the Atlantic Ocean (and the Gulf of Mexico), because more containers per ship can be carried directly to Savannah or New York-North Jersey.  This would make the Supply Chain Cheaper as water transport from the Pacific through the Panama Canal and to the East Coast will now be cheaper as the volume per shipment has increased.  This is similar to running fewer trains that are longer.  Even when it takes a container longer time to travel by sea to an East Coast Port, the rail passage from the port intermodal terminal to its dray point is considerably shorter.

Back in December of 2015, I looked at the Santa Fe Trans-Con Route and gave a SWOT Analysis of Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats.  Here is what I wrote:

    To consider why these routes will loose traffic, let's apply the SWOT analysis (Strength,Weakness, Opportunity, Threat) to each of the western transcontinental lines that are shipping containers to the eastern US.

Santa Fe Transcon: 

• S=Established, Well Run, High Speed CTC Equipped Double Track Routing From LA/Long Beach to Chicago 
• W=Distance to Chicago, Interchange at Chicago, Crossing Multiple Mountain Ranges, Shared Trackage at Cajon Pass, Congestion around Los Angeles, Lots of Traffic
• O=Most opportunities with this mature route have been taken
• T=Lack of Capacity, Shorter Routes with less demanding geography

Since this was written, BNSF has made plans to Triple Track and Quadruple Track both Fueling Terminals and Crew Change Terminals, to eliminate multiple  Weaknesses, "Bottle-Neck Delays," that occur during these routine terminal operational occurrences.

Now let's look at the Threat(s):  CSX has a number of shorter (, if not more direct) routes with less challenging geography.  Starting in Savannah, 1) they could run double stacked Container Trains either South to Waycross, then North toward Chicago and into North Baltimore, 2) Starting in Savannah, they could run North to NYC and Albany, turning west to North Baltimore, 3) But the Gem is starting in Savannah, running north to Baltimore and running the Old B&O to North Baltimore.  The ACL , RF&P and B&O into Baltimore is relatively flat, but it's Single Track at least up through the RF&P.  From Baltimore to Sand Patch it's Double Tracked, with clearances for Double Stacked Containers.  After a short single track on the far side of Sand Patch, it's Double Track all the way into North Baltimore (and further into Chicago), relatively low grade (after all the B&O did establish the standard for grades on the railroads) and the Summit of the Alleghenies is far lower in altitude than the Santa Fe in California, Arizona, New Mexico or Colorado.  I doubt that CSX would even have to refuel the locomotives on the trip, saving time and costing less for operations

Meanwhile, CSX is letting BNSF establish and prove this business venture. Soon after the venture is proven profitable, I expect them to enter in to the fray as a single company, lower (the Lowest?) cost provider for rail service delivery of containers from the Container Port to the dray point terminal.

However, the unsung routing could even be from Savannah to Columbia, SC to Spartanburg, SC to Elkhorn City, KY to Shelbyville, KY to Cincinnati, OH into North Baltimore.  While single stack clearance requires more trains and greater length trains with distributed power (cutting profits - due to the old Spartanburg Tunnel - under the Southern Ry. Mainline and other clearances both north and south of the Clinchfield Railroad proper), this line with a single train each way, each day, to and from Johnson City, TN was built with lower grades and better curves, to haul longer coal trains with less power than other crossings of the Appalachian Mountains and will keep trains off Michael Ward's "Intermodal Conveyor System" triangle.

So, let's see just how long BNSF's joint venture Intermodal Container Service with the CSX lasts, before CSX shows "How Freight Moves in the 21st Century" with a shorter and less costly service from over seas to the Ohio Valley.